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Trajectory

Date:  March 30, 2001
  
FROM: NOAA/Hazardous Materials Response Branch
      Modeling and Simulation Studies   
      Seattle, WA 98115
      
SUBJECT: 
Crude Oil leak from New Field Exploration Platform, 90 miles south of Galveston, TX

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, PLEASE CONTACT Glen Watabayashi,
MODELING AND SIMULATION STUDIES, NOAA, SEATTLE, WA 98115.
PHONE (206) 526-6317.
______________________________________________________
Per your request we have looked at trajectory implications from a crude oil release from a
New Field Exploration Platform


At approx. 11:30 local time, a well release was reported of approx. 200 bbls of crude oil
from a platform at 27°58.8'N, 94°30.3'W. This location is approx. 90 nm south of
Galveston, and 40nm west of the Flower Garden Marine Sanctuary. NRC reported a slick of
about 1.5 miles by 300 yards.


The oil type as been reported to be a 38 API crude.

The volume estimate has since been downgraded to approx. 100 bbls.

If any of this initial information is incorrect, please let us know ASAP as it would
affect our analysis.

______________________________________________________
1) Winds:
Friday night, the winds are expected to be from the NE at 15 knots.  Saturday, SE winds at
10-15 knots are predicted.  Saturday night, SE winds at 10-15 knots are forecast to shift
and be from the NE at 15-20 knots by the late evening hours.


2) Currents:
The data from the TABS buoy at Flower Garden indicates a surface current of approx. 1/3
knot. This current is moving eastward Friday evening, and is expected to change direction,
moving around to the south, and then back to the east over the next 18 hours.


3) Trajectory:
With both the winds and the currents expected to change directions over the next 24 hours,
the slick is expected to move to the south, and then to the west, ending up in the
quadrant south west of the platform, at a distance of 10-15nm. It is not expected to move
closer to the Flower Gardens in the next 36 hours, or make landfall for at least several
days.


4) Oil Fate:
The spilled oil is reported to be a light crude (API 38). Given the reported weather
conditions and sea state, we would expect the slick to rapidly dissipate, with a quarter
of the oil evaporating within the first day and another ten to fifteen per cent naturally
dispersing into the water column. The remaining oil may emulsify and eventually form pea-
sized tar ball fields. These fields are very difficult to observe from aerial overflights
and are very persistent in the marine environment.