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Trajectory

Date: March 14, 2001
  To: NOAA SSC Charlie Henry  
FROM: NOAA/Hazardous Materials Response Division
      Modeling and Simulation Studies
      Seattle, WA 98115
      
SUBJECT: TV Hector Maru

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, PLEASE CONTACT Debra Simecek-Beatty,
MODELING AND SIMULATION STUDIES, NOAA, SEATTLE, WA 98115.
PHONE (206) 526-6317.
_______________________________________________________
Per your request we have looked at trajectory implications of the Kuwait crude that has
been released from a tanker.  These notes are based on the following information:


At about 1500 CST on March 14, 2001 , the off loading of a tanker was disrupted by strong
winds in the Galveston area.  On-scene observers reported that about 100 barrels of Kuwait
crude was spilled into the Texas City canal, Texas.   It is not known if the vessel is
leaking product.  If any of this initial information is incorrect, please let us

know ASAP as it would affect any trajectory implications.
_______________________________________________________
1)Weather Forecast
Tonight, the winds are expected to be from the W at 10-15 knots.  Thursday morning, the
winds are forecast to be from the NW at 15-20 knots.  Thursday afternoon, the winds are
predicted to be from the N at 15-20 knots.


2) Trajectory Analysis
At the time of the release, winds were easterly at about 60 knots.  The Bolivar Ports data
indicates from about 1500 to 1800 CST, a surge resulted in a strong flood (~3/4 knot).  A
flood tide would likely move much of the released oil into the industrial canal.  With the
northerly winds, the southern shoreline would be threatened. (The industrial canal does
not open into Swan Lake.) Currently, the PORTS data indicates the flow through Bolivar
Roads is similar to the predicted tides.  While much  of the spilled oil will likely have
already beached,forecasted westerly winds and an ebb tide could transport any oil still
floating through the Texas City canal, threatening the Texas City Dike and the east side
of Bolivar Peninsula.  Oil could be transported to the Galveston Jetties within 6 to 12
hours of the initial release.  Any oil outside of the jetties is expected to move further
offshore due to the forecasted northwesterly winds and to the southwest with the downcoast
currents.


3) Oil Weathering
Kuwait crude is a relatively light (API 31) crude oil but has a tendency to rapidly
emulsify. Although 10-30 % of the spilled oil will evaporate, the mousse formed from the
oil-water emulsion could contain as much as 80% water. Therefore,  the mousse may
represent a larger volume than the amount of oil that was originally spilled. It will have
a very high viscosity. In the long term, any remaining floating oil will form a tar ball
field. Tar balls are very persistent in the marine environment.